THE COST FOR CANADA
What are our climate change policies really costing us?
Canada has over 400 policies and measures to reduce present and projected GHG emissions. The government projects these costs to be:
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2015 - 2023: The Federal government spent $120 billion
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2020 - 2030: Federal and provincial governments are expected to spend $476 billion ($12,000 per resident)
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By 2050: The estimated cost to the economy ranges from $2 trillion to $3.8 trillion
Foregone oil, gas, and mining projects since 2014 have amounted to a loss of over $600 billion in investments. We have also analysed the vast expenses required for the City of Ottawa's Climate Change Master Plan in our report here.
What will this look like for the average citizen?
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No petroleum fuels for heating, cooking, lighting, and transportation
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High costs for petrochemical products (anything with plastic)
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Higher electricity rates
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More blackouts and brownouts
Simply put, we will drive our society into poverty. Currently, Canadians rely on 73% of their energy needs from oil, natural gas, and coal, and removing this crucial energy source will be devastating.
Already, a significant proportion of Canadian households experience energy poverty, ranging from 10% to 31% provincially, as seen in the graph below. Energy poverty is defined as the share of households that spend more than 6% of their income on energy bills.
We can only expect this dismal state of affairs to worsen with further expenditure on climate change policies. Energy poverty has been shown to increase the risk for certain chronic diseases and cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, which is understandable in Canada's harsh winters, when heating and proper ventilation is crucial.
We did not ask for these vast expenditures. Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a promise in 2019 to plant 2 billion trees by 2031 to tackle climate change, and the price tag on this project was $3.2 billion over 10 years. Fortunately, the project was discontinued before its completion when Prime Minister Mark Carney took office, but but as of June 2026, it had so far planted 158 million trees at a significant cost. Moreover, with Canada's vast forests, the project made very little difference. Why are we letting politicians dictate where billions of dollars are being spent when more and more citizens are living in energy poverty?
The Canadian Government's Net Zero Plans
The Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act, passed in 2021, legally binds the government to achieve Net Zero emissions by 2050 and set emission reduction targets every five years. This plan includes CO2 pricing.
Since 2019, every jurisdiction in Canada has to have a system of carbon dioxide taxation or emissions trading. This has three components:
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A carbon charge on consumers and small businesses (these charges have been removed since Prime Minister Carney took office)
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Output-Based Pricing System (OBPS) on large industrial emissions to create a financial incentive for companies to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The OBPS is expected to rise to $140 per tonne of CO2 by 2040. Currently (2026), we are at $95 per tonne. This is far higher than other countries Canada trades with. In the US, there is no national carbon tax, and in China, it is just $11 per tonne.
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In Quebec, an emissions cap-and-trade system
There are also many regulations to phase out hydrocarbon use, including subsidies and tax incentives paid for by the public. Using data from the Carbon Pricing Dashboard, and EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) the cost of CO2 emissions for the top 7 emitters with CO2 pricing in effect against their percent of CO2 emissions can be seen on the graph below. Note that India, Russia, Brazil, Iran, and Saudi Arabia are in the top emitters but do not have a price on CO2 so are not included.
So apart from the EU countries, Canada's carbon tax is the highest in the world. And with our emissions ranking at only 1.1% of global emissions, even if reducing emissions were in our best interests, the high price tag is hardly reasonable.
p. 13 https://www.icsc-canada.com/_files/ugd/258e98_7fcb33e871444d818eaa1fc2d666db91.pdf
Bill C-69 was introduced in 2019 for the purpose of dictating how major energy and infrastructure projects are reviewed and approved. Inevitably, this bill has a large focus on climate change, and by doubling the scope of environmental assessment and increasing opportunities for delays, it essentially served to block pipeline construction. Almost all new infrastructure must also be consistent with Net Zero objectives.
The Clean Fuel Standard is a regime to reduce the carbon intensity of liquid fuels used in transportation. The annual cost per household in 2030 is estimated to be over $1,100 in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Carney negotiated a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Alberta that prevents bans on emissions from applying to the province. The electricity sector in most provinces has regulations to ban hydrocarbon use by 2035 (this may not apply to Alberta due to the MOU). So by 2035, motor vehicle manufacturers must stop selling internal combustion light-duty vehicles, which will add thousands of dollars to the price of new cars. This will reduce transportation choice and severely increase costs to consumers. Later, we will explore just how insufficient electric vehicles are for providing reliable transportation across Canada.
The Royal Bank estimates the transition cost at approximately $2 trillion, and the federal government estimates $3.4 – $3.8 trillion by 2050. This is nearly twice Canada’s current GDP.
o Ross McKitrick estimates that achieving Net Zero could cost $8,000 per worker by 2050 and result in 250,000 lost jobs. Jobs created in the clean energy sector will be unlikely to replace these jobs: studies in Europe showed that for every job created in renewable energy, 2 – 3 jobs were lost elsewhere. Moreover, Canada’s clean technology sector has only grown from 3% of the GDP in 2007 to 3.6% of the GDP in 2023.
o Electricity prices have risen already, public debt has increased, and industrial competitiveness has declined.
o Climate policies are expected to add $55,000 to the cost of a home due to new energy efficiency standards.
